bluff.com
Facebook pays $19B for whatsapp. instagram goes for a billion...
What kind of desperation is this?
how can these acquisitions be justified?
Even if you dig in numbers, there is no method to the madness - typically they would compare customer acquisition cost (which are astronomical for a category with such a low entry barrier and high attrition rates of users. And just try to realize the promised full potential of monetization - and see if the userbase doesn't evaporate.). Compare those numbers for geocities, aol, myspace, whatsapp.. (and for a sanity check, other industries). All money down the drain. Why is all the money being made in 'exits'? That is not a sustainable way for an industry to thrive.
Then some talk about potential in a monopoly & ecosystems tying down people. But that's the sure sign of a dying desperate game. When the game changes from that of creating awesomeness, to cornering access - that is a sure sign of impending irrelevance. People switch from one service/ product to another quite easily, without emotional baggage.
Some may talk of future in hushed tones and glazed eyes. But no sir. no one has keys to future.
If there's one thing that you can learn from people in last 2 decades, it is that they are ridiculously unpredictable (people on streets, leapfrogging, long cause -effect lines... )
I feel, all Zuckerberg is doing is playing bluff, keeping people guessing. Gullible people hope that the maverick would do the exponential magic.
The idiotic business of prediction (consultants, financial analyst firms, biz talking heads) obfuscate basic from one bubble to next. They are not in the business of generating wealth, they are in the business of scheming of bubbles.
What kind of desperation is this?
how can these acquisitions be justified?
Even if you dig in numbers, there is no method to the madness - typically they would compare customer acquisition cost (which are astronomical for a category with such a low entry barrier and high attrition rates of users. And just try to realize the promised full potential of monetization - and see if the userbase doesn't evaporate.). Compare those numbers for geocities, aol, myspace, whatsapp.. (and for a sanity check, other industries). All money down the drain. Why is all the money being made in 'exits'? That is not a sustainable way for an industry to thrive.
Then some talk about potential in a monopoly & ecosystems tying down people. But that's the sure sign of a dying desperate game. When the game changes from that of creating awesomeness, to cornering access - that is a sure sign of impending irrelevance. People switch from one service/ product to another quite easily, without emotional baggage.
Some may talk of future in hushed tones and glazed eyes. But no sir. no one has keys to future.
If there's one thing that you can learn from people in last 2 decades, it is that they are ridiculously unpredictable (people on streets, leapfrogging, long cause -effect lines... )
I feel, all Zuckerberg is doing is playing bluff, keeping people guessing. Gullible people hope that the maverick would do the exponential magic.
The idiotic business of prediction (consultants, financial analyst firms, biz talking heads) obfuscate basic from one bubble to next. They are not in the business of generating wealth, they are in the business of scheming of bubbles.
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